Famous political scientist, Helmut Norpoth, receives daily calls from media seeking his comments on possible results of the US Presidential Election 2020. The interest is due to his prediction in 2016 when only one of few made an accurate projection about the US Presidential election result. Naturally, media houses run after him as the election day approaches for the same reason.
Norpoth is a senior professor of Political Science in Stony Brook’s department. He has always been highly successful in predicting the right election result based on his primary model, a statistical representation of US Presidential Elections. The data is from the historical time of the US and is the backbone of his statistics.
According to his 2020’s prediction model, President Donald Trump is the man holding the Presidential chair at the Oval Office, as Norpoth gives him a 90% chance of winning the election in a landslide. Norpoth’s prediction is definitely a controversial call that goes the opposite direction to what current polls predict.
The best part of his primary election prediction model is that it has accurately predicted five of the past six elections. When Norpoth’s primary model was applied to the past elections, it predicted 25 presidential elections accurately out of 27. The only two election outcomes that didn’t match his primary model were the 2000 election when George W.Bush defeated Al Gore, the 1960 election when John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon. Both of these two elections have the allegation of voting inaccuracies.
It was the 1992 US Presidential election when Norpoth seriously decided to start working on his primary model. He tested the primary model for the first time in the 1996 Presidential race.
Norpoth said that his first prediction was the 1996 election when President Bill Clinton was re-elected for the second time as a president. Predicting Bill Clinton as a winner of the second term presidential role was challenging for Norpoth, considering that Clinton’s first presidential tenure was terrible.
Norpoth has been working as a professor at Stony Brook University since 1979. Based on a simple, early version of his primary model, Norpoth accurately predicted the winning of Bill Clinton. His model has been expanded with time and has been evolving in today’s time. The one crucial metric that has always remained unchanged in Norpoth’s primary model is the early presidential primaries’ importance.
The 2008 US Presidential election was somehow different as Barack Obama won both the nomination and the election despite failing to win the primary of New Hampshire. It was the time when Norpoth decided to expand the range of his primary and included the New Carolina primary in his data-driven and highly effective model.
According to Norpoth, what he mainly focuses on is the early primaries and how they perform. Based on these two crucial factors, he makes the final prediction because Norpoth thinks that these two are highly effective indicators of what will happen at the US Presidential Election day in November.
The significant focus given on the primaries is what always makes Norpoth’s prediction model different than other political experts. Unlike many other prediction models popular in the US political market, Norpoth’s primary-focused prediction model completely ignores the approval rating. The reason is very simple and straightforward – Norpoth always predicts election outcomes based on real numbers.